Monday, October 16, 2006

Way Too Early SEC Bowl Projections

This is a projection, not a prediction. I rolled through the remainder of the SEC schedule, and based on nothing more than guesswork on who'd be favored in the remaining games and assuming the favorite would always win (which they won't), the regular season final standings would look like this:

Alabama: Currently 5-2, projected finish 7-5 (underdog to Tennessee, LSU and Auburn).
Arkansas: Currently 5-1, projected finish 9-3 (underdog to Tennessee and LSU).
Auburn: Currently 6-1, projected finish 11-1 (should be favored in every game).
Florida: Currently 6-1, projected finish 11-1 (should be favored in every game).
Georgia: Currently 5-2, projected finish 7-5 (underdog to Florida, Auburn and Georgia Tech).
Kentucky: Currently 3-4, projected finish 4-8 (favored against Louisiana-Monroe).
LSU: Currently 5-2, projected finish 9-3 (underdog to Tennessee).
Ole Miss: Currently 2-5, projected finish 4-8 (favored against Northwestern State and Mississippi State).
Mississippi State: Currently 2-5, projected finish 2-10 (should not be favored again).
South Carolina: Currently 4-2, projected finish 6-6 (underdog to Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida and Clemson).
Tennessee: Currently 5-1, projected finish 11-1 (should be favored in every game).
Vanderbilt: Currently 4-3, projected finish 6-6 (underdog to South Carolina, Florida and Tennessee).

With the understanding that things will most likely not turn out this way--upsets can, do and will happen--that'd be a very interesting finish. It would set up an Auburn-Florida rematch in the SECCG that might send the champion into the BCS title game. At worst, the winner would play in the Sugar Bowl. It would also set up Tennessee as a lock for a BCS at-large bid, I'd guess in the Rose Bowl--not half bad. I'm guessing Auburn gets that slot instead if Arkansas wins two out of three against Carolina, Tennessee and LSU, dropping Tennessee to the Citrus and knocking down everybody else in the following list (by rule, conferences are limited to two BCS bids), but that possibility violates the who's-favored rule, so we'll disregard it for the time being.

After that, things get really messy. The Citrus is liable to be a three-way train wreck involving the SECCG loser, Arkansas and LSU. Just a guess, but I think the Citrus would take LSU. I almost said the Outback would grab Arkansas, but the Pig fans have a terrible reputation for not travelling to games, so on further review, I think the SECCG loser would go to Tampa. In no small part because a sizeable portion of Arkansas thinks the Razorbacks are still in the Southwest Conference, UArk would get the Cotton Bowl.

That would most likely put Alabama in the Peach Bowl, since the Turds haven't played there, er, ever, dropping Georgia down to the Music City. I think the Liberty Bowl would grab Vanderbilt, as breaking a quarter-century postseason drought would make the Commodores would be a major media draw. That would leave South Carolina to pay another visit to lovely Shreveport. If I were their players, I'd be thinking seriously about starting another brawl with Clemson as an avoidance maneuver.


s1c said...

Arkansas might have a bad travel to independence bowl and who can blame them, but if you look at their bowl game history they have traveled well to the games played just before Christmas and new year day games. You are the first person I have ever seen talk about bad traveling to bowl games.

Clashmore said...

I agree it looks like you'll have one team in the sugar and one at-large team.
Notre Dame will almost undoubtedly be visiting New Orleans for what looks to be an interesting game against Auburn. Better work on your offense!